United States Core CPI m/m June 10 2021

$0.05

0.30 $ earned

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NEUTRAL USDJPY
James Thatcher published an idea on USDJPY, Other
last month

What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.

CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)


Historic deviations and their outcome

May 12 2021 We saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines.

I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit.

The perfect storm, with significant deviation, big initial move and lots of continuing price action, making it virtually impossible not to make money.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50136/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMTM2O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

April 13 2021 Minor deviations created a nice spike but no continuation. Therefore it provided a minimal opportunity and no trade for me.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38254/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MjU0O3Q9MjAyMS00LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

March 10 2021 The headline and secondary line Core CPI Y/Y and M/M both deviated by 0.1, giving a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY. That's an excellent move for such a slight deviation, which shows how hot this data is becoming.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33216/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzMjE2O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTEwJTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x




I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.5
CPI (M/M) 0.5
CPI (Y/Y) 4.7



Today's trade plan

The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.



Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.3% to sell USDJPY or 0.7% to buy USDJPY.

I'm only looking to trade USDJPY as there's an ECB press conference at the same time. I wouldn't want to trade EURUSD for that fact today.



I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any of the other three lines!



CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)

CPI - (Y/Y

)

If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.


Tradable pairs

USDJPY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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